Bill Gates observed that “we always overestimate the change that will occur in the next two years and underestimate the change that will occur in the next ten”, a quote that came back to me when I had to deliver a short speech recently about what e-learning will look like in 2012.
To give some context, the customer who invited me to speak has extensive e-learning experience, has just implemented Mohive as a common platform for all of their external e-learning suppliers, and is getting ready to roll out rapid e-learning internally as well. Their goal has been to reach “e-learning in five days” and after just a few months of operation they're already getting to that point. But they'd like to know what's coming next. Wouldn't we all!
Looking back to see forward
I resisted the urge to make dramatic predictions about changes timed to coincide with the Olympic games - this was a UK audience - but I did keep my focus on that two-year period which Gates suggests we so often overestimate. I tried to extrapolate what will be happening in two years time based on what is going on now (and what was beginning to happen two years ago). And it's true - changes do look less dramatic through this narrower window. But then these minor shifts may turn into major upheavals over the course of a decade.
Three things you'll see more of in 2012
So, here are my predictions for three things we'll see much more of in 2012 and which will be part of bigger changes we'll see by 2020.
1. More 'local' SMEs creating e-learning
I believe that customers will go from a position of having the majority of their content created externally, to one where 30% to 50% of their e-learning is created by Subject Matter Experts in the different markets in which the organisation operates.
"SMEs can create good quality e-learning content. All they need to do so is the right technology, a sound process and a little hands-on practice."
There was a lot of interest in localisation at Learning Technologies in January. But if your content is created by local SMEs then your e-learning is localised from the outset. Learning professionals may feel that this is a dangerous path, and may question whether output generated exclusively by SMEs will be good enough in terms of quality, instructional design etc. In my view though, instructional design should be secondary to the relevance of the content. And if SMEs can be expected to write Word documents, and to create PowerPoint shows and present them effectively, then there is no reason why they shouldn't also create good quality e-learning content. All they need to do so is the right technology, a sound process and a little hands-on practice.
2. More volume, but shorter and sharper
In the past, e-learning courses were most frequently aimed at global audiences, or at least at the larger of an organisation's internal markets. By 2012, using a rapid approach, we'll see much higher volumes of knowledge being transferred, but this volume will be made up of many more, much smaller courses aimed at smaller target groups.
"We'll see much higher volumes of knowledge being transferred... made up of many more, much smaller courses aimed at smaller target groups."
As content creators, local SMEs and local trainers need to resist the urge to simply throw everything they know at their audiences. The good news is that by following the right process they can usually make shorter courses than external consultants can (and do so more quickly) because they know their audience - often personally! This makes it easier for them to prioritise and focus on key messages and relevant content. And that means we'll see organisations targeting ever-smaller groups with ever-sharper and more timely content.
3. More moving pictures
I’m a big believer in video, and we've seen a big increase in the use of video in e-learning programmes over the last few years. I confidently expect to see even more of it in the future.
"Pretty much anyone can shoot a piece of rapid video."
Pretty much anyone can shoot a piece of 'rapid video' using a product like the Flip camera - it's almost as straightforward as taking photographs. You can do the job at very low cost, with virtually none of the overheads in terms of time and budget commonly associated with video. There's no need for a script or a massive production effort; with the rapid approach you just find and interview an expert, edit and upload the video, and then build it into your course.
Doing this can add massively to the impact of your e-learning, giving it a more human feel, delivering insights through stories and vox pops, and showing faces that learners can relate to.
So: more local content creation, a higher volume of more rapidly created shorter courses, and more video are my predictions for 2012.
Keep an eye on your goal
I didn't include informal learning in my predictions - not because this isn't going to happen, but because it wasn't relevant to the customer in question. This is true of many organisations for whom the challenge is more about bringing employees up to required standards than experimenting with social media.
If you're implementing rapid e-learning to increase sales and improve the customer experience, then my advice is to keep these goals clearly in view. There will be decisions to make, polices to be crafted and quality to discuss, but at the end of the day it’s all about the effect, not about the technology.